BY AARON DAVID MILLER | WASHINGTON “If I had another life, I’d want to be a Middle East negotiator, just like you,” former Secretary of State James Baker once told me jokingly, “because it would mean guaranteed permanent employment.”
As the latest secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, visits the Middle East this week, Baker’s crack provides a sobering context. Opportunities exist but so do tremendous challenges. Before crafting an approach to deal with them, the Bush administration might want to review some of the proven dos and don’ts of recent Arab-Israeli peacemaking. Here are five worth considering.
Make this issue a priority. Arab-Israeli peace is not weekend work. It requires everyday effort managed at the highest levels. The president’s involvement is critical but must be husbanded for critical interventions. Instead, it is the secretary of state and/or a special envoy who must be prepared to make a sustained commitment. Henry Kissinger spent more than a month shuttling to conclude the 1974 Syrian-Israeli disengagement agreement; Baker made nine trips to the Middle East to initiate the Madrid peace process. Without that commitment, neither Arabs nor Israelis will take America seriously.
Don’t ignore bad behavior. During the Clinton administration, America was not nearly tough enough on getting the Palestinians to fight terror, violence or incitement; nor was America tough enough on the Israelis to stop expanding settlements. Each set of actions poisoned the atmosphere, undermined public support and constrained what each side was prepared to offer. The Bush administration has no tolerance for terror and incitement; it must also press the Israelis to stop settlement activity and land confiscation, particularly when it comes to the construction of the security fence. Ignoring these behaviors now will make it impossible for talks to succeed later.
The United States must control its own policy. Too often America allowed others to have too much influence over its tactics and strategy. This was painfully obvious in 1999 and 2000, when America too easily acquiesced in Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s ill-conceived Syria-first strategy and his desire for a make-or-break summit meeting with the Palestinians at Camp David. America must make it clear to the Israelis that if they want U.S. support for a particular position on the peace process, it must make sense, have a realistic chance of working and take American as well as Israeli needs into account.
Beware interim deals and high-risk summit meetings. After the collapse of the Oslo process, it is not surprising that many have urged a quick return to a final deal as the only way forward. Forget it. Neither side is willing or able now to make the decisions required to conclude an agreement on Jerusalem, borders or refugees. Nor can America afford to fail with another cosmic roll of the dice at a high-level summit meeting. At the same time, we can’t simply return to an interim approach that loses sight of the end game.
There is a way to square the circle. For now, America needs to support a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and urge both sides to explore quietly what’s possible in the West Bank. To make sure the end game doesn’t get lost, however, America needs to lay out the broad parameters that would guide negotiations on the core issues. This approach would not force negotiations on either side when they’re not ready, but it would restore hope that a final settlement was not only desirable but possible.
Be decisive and tough: The three Americans who have historically made the greatest contribution to Middle East peace—Kissinger, President Jimmy Carter and Baker—all combined toughness and empathy with an acute sense of when to intercede. America needs to understand the needs and fears of each side and abandon any thought of forcing an agreement. But successful negotiations often mean stretching Arabs and Israelis beyond what they initially thought they could do. This process can be painful but is critical for success.
Applying these lessons won’t guarantee success. But Arab-Israeli peace is a core U.S. interest and well worth the effort. And if America is persistent and determined, 2005 might not only be a turning point for Arab-Israeli peace, but maybe even a chance to begin proving Jim Baker wrong.
Aaron David Miller, president of Seeds of Peace, served as an adviser on Arab-Israeli affairs to six U.S. secretaries of state.